App State — 2026 schedule & results record 5-2 · model's picks 5-2 so far
Proj rating -8.0 · SOS -8.6 · Mean wins 6.1 · Picked 5-7 · Vegas 5.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Maine | home | W 55–3 | -21 ✓ | +22.9 | 91% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | East Carolina | away | W 27–24 | +6.5 ✓ | -12.0 | 25% | L ✗ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Charlotte | home | W 26–21 | -16.25 ✗ | +12.1 | 76% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | NC State | away | L 31–41 | +12.75 ✓ | -17.1 | 16% | L ✓ | |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Old Dominion | home | L 3–10 | -9 ✗ | -1.2 | 48% | L ✓ | |
| 7 | Fri 10/16 | Coastal Carolina | away | W 35–32 | -1.25 ✓ | +1.3 | 53% | W ✓ |
App State -1 · WIN +18 |
| 8 | Thu 10/22 | James Madison | home | W 34–31 | +12.75 ✓ | -7.2 | 34% | L ✗ |
James Madison -10.5 · LOSS -30 James Madison -11 · LOSS -30 |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Georgia Southern | away | — | +5.5 | -1.5 | 46% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Georgia State | home | — | — | +9.9 | 72% | W | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Marshall | away | — | — | -8.3 | 32% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | UL Monroe | home | — | — | +11.2 | 75% | W | |
| 13 | Fri 11/27 | South Alabama | away | — | — | -3.6 | 42% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.